Market Update: 20 Dec 2015

Not going to beat around the bush this time round. We are coming to the end of year 2015 and so what will be the trend for US market and Crude oil before the beginning of year 2016.
Lets go straight to the charts

S&P 500 weekly chart

DJI weekly chart

Base on both DJI and S&P chart showing that the market try to retest the high after FED announced rate hike but failed after friday closing. IMO, I believe more downside for the coming week and will be quite bearish if both DJI and S&P successfully closed below August low.

WTI month chart

Most trader start to speculate whether is there a rebound coming soon for WTI - crude oil. IMO, I believe WTI will try to test the low in 2008 at $32.5 and might even break through since FED announced rate hike last week.  However I believe is good to slowly accumulate and watchlist certain companies when the price hit around $25-$30. Slowly invest bit by bit since it might take 1 or 2 qtr of 2016 before it recover. (OPEC have the final say whether to recover or not)

 Overall: In theory, rate hike will definitely impact the economy in certain way and I believe will be a negative impact. However, the impact will not be immediate. To make it simple, during GFC, Fed reduce the rate to save the economy and how can it be that increase interest rate will improve the economy? (A real debatable question). 

Market Update: 18 Oct 2015

Its been 3 week after my last update. We have experienced the bull run over last 3 week whereby my DJI position also got stopped out. However it might be too late to turn contrarian as for now. I will continue to monitor further with no position on hand in the US market. For the upcoming week, I will share my view on STI and two individual counters. I may enter if the candle showing any entry signal.
So lets begin with the charts.

 DJI: I got stopped out from my short position at 17k where by the candle closed above the short signal on 17 Sep. I will stay out right now to monitor further before any action.

STI: Its been uptrend for the past 2 week till it come to the first resistance level 3050. The first resistance fall nicely into the Support turn resistant line plus 38.2% fibo. As for now, STI fall into the conjunction of both bull and bear decision. If 3050 successfully take over, it may continue to trend upward to the next fibo at 3150. (I will remain sideway till a clearer picture)

 DailyFarm: There is a channel position form in the weekly chart. Nicely fall within the channel.
Long: $6.3
SL: $5.9
Final TP: $8.1
 RRR: 4.5

Ho Bee: Weekly showing uptrend remain intact. Eyeing for opportunity to long this counter.
Long: $1.97
SL: $1.91
TP: $2.07
RRR: 1.667

Overall: Market still in between the bull and bear season since after US market index break below 200MA.
Watch out for the earning reports in US market and continue to monitor any sign of rate hike during the FOMC. Investors believe the Fed may push back the rate hike till year 2016. However as a trader, we continue to stay nimble and be strict in our stop lost to protect ourselves against any unforeseen news.

You are remind to trade base on your own risk. Plan and Trade well :)

Market Update: 27 Sep 2015

It’s been 10month since my last post. Finally I have graduated from my degree in finance. However the passion to enhance my financial knowledge does not stop here. I have registered myself for the next Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) Level 1 examination in 2016. Although to be a TA trader does not require having CFA certificate, I still wish to expose myself in this enormous finance world.

To be a TA trader, strict discipline must always be the number 1 rule. You got to be true to yourself in your performance. I see the different in my P&L with and without posting my trading journal in my blog. To be frank, I am not doing well compare to last year. Either I’m lack of discipline or the weak market sentiment caused it.

By now, most investors/traders should know that we are facing a weak/bearish market sentiment in the world exchange. Trader face no issue as their time frame is rather short compare to investor. For investor out there, some investor eying to offload their portfolio to prevent further bleeding while the rest will like to catch the bottom fish. (Example blue chip or REITs to earn dividend)

Investors who use discount model factor to calculate the intrinsic value of a company should be wary of the US interest rate hike in year 2015 confirmed by yellen last week. The increase of the interest rate will definitely erode the profit of the company balance sheet. Long term investors might like to stay put in the equity market and go for other product.

In my opinion, base on the DJI chart below, I feel that there might be another bear wave approaching the US exchange. I am eying to short on the rebound in the coming week and long once it reach near 15k with an entry candle signal.

You are remind to trade base on your own risk. Plan and Trade well :)

Happy New Year 2015

Happy New Year 2015! 
This come late than never. I wish everyone a coming year is a fantabulous one that rewards all your future endeavors with success!

Have you write down your New Year's Resolutions for 2015?
I was out of town celebrating for the New Year count down. Didn't have a chance to post this on the day itself. Anyway I have made my New Year's resolutions under the beautiful fireworks. Hope you guys have spent a wonderful day with your loved one.

A brand New Year. I wish to start a bit different this time round. Year 2015 shall be a tough year in the financial market.

Why? 

21st century

• 2001 – Bursting of dot-com bubble – speculations concerning internet companies crashed
• 2007–08 – Global financial crisis 

 As most people know 2015 might be the beginning of a new financial year crisis base on past history records. Each financial crisis interval of 7-8yrs in between. So year 2015 nicely fall into the time frame of it.

What to do?

Always be prepare!
As for me, I will try to stay away from the market for the first 2wks and monitor how it flow. (Market is always there, most important is to preserve your capital) I will see a clear signal trend before stepping into the market once again.

What should you do?

For new traders/investors, my advise for you is to pick up some knowledge in the financial market before stepping into it. Be it FA/TA/PA, as long as you manage your risks well enough, you should be safe (at least wont get a big hole in your pocket).

Last but not least, I wish all the very best to the traders out there. HUAT AR!!