Market Update: 12 May 2019

Ongoing US-China trade war will be the spark for the upcoming week. Last Friday, Thanos (Trump) threat to raise tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese exports from 10% to 25%, making a sharp escalation in tension between the world’s two largest economics. The coming days could be crucial waiting for China’s response.

DJI recovered around 300+ points and closed above the channel last Friday. Based on the chart, DJI might climb to around 26300 points or trade within the channel if it break above 26300. I believed Thanos (as a business man) will not destroy this bullish market created by him. However, he may create an artificial bearish as a reason for Fed to reduce interest rate. Nevertheless, DJI chart show a good trade setup to go long. SL once the price closes below the channel.

STI showing no clear signal after it has traded down over the last week from 3400 point. As I mentioned previously, no position consider as a position. Those who bought during the fake breakout highlighted in yellow, are trapped at the moment. I will continue to stay aside from STI till a better trade setup appears.

WTI is trading between 50% & 61.8% Fibo currently. Base on the weekly chart, WTI failed to close above the S/R line at $64. Therefore, I assume WTI will continue to trade sideways between 50% & 61.8% and high chance will reach to 38.2% ($58 follow by $55.70).

Overall: Everyone is waiting for Mr.Bear to hit the market. However, if crisis can be predicted accurately, it will not be name as a crisis. I strongly believed a Chinese comic idiom: “成也风云败也风云” which can be use over here as “成也特朗普败特朗普” (The idiom mean success and failure are both due to the same factor)

You are remind to trade base on your own risk. Plan and Trade well :)

Market Update: 05 May 2019

Last Friday, US Nonfarm payroll easily beat Wall Street expectation with the actual figure of 263k increased by 196k in March of 2019. Unemployment rate fell to 3.6% vs 3.8% expected and the lowest since December 1969. US interest rates remain unchanged and investors had begun to expect that the Fed might signal a rate cut.

1) When Fed lowers Interest rate, lending becomes cheaper, increasing the flower of money. But inflation can become a problem.
2) When Fed raises interest rate, lending gets more expensive, this can slow down the economy. But it generally lowers inflation.

However, if Fed decides to lower the rate, the economy could be in danger of overheating, driving inflation. Cutting rates now would also take away weapons in Fed’s arsenal in the event of an economic downturn as the interest rates are only at 2.5% which doesn’t leave much room for rate cuts.

With the above information, does it really affect you will still depend on your trading time horizon. Going forward, I will be sharing simple trading strategies that a trader must include such as Time Horizon. Without further ado, we shall start with STI charting.

 STI continue to climb up to 3400 point which broke above the 61.8% Fibo from the previous support line. I take no position even though it has reached my red circle zone which I have shared in my last market update. I am monitoring closely waiting for a trade setup and trade signal to come into play. Remember that no position is still a position. (Most traders fail to aware that due to their hand itchiness and always wish to participate in the market)

DJI – Even though last Friday US reported such a bullish data, but the market failed to break through the all time high. This might be because no one wishes to be trap entering at the high price. I will continue to monitor at 27k and wait for a reverse candle.

Oxley has sold Chevron House for up to $1.025 billion with terms in the contract. Base on the chart, the price closed above 200MA. If your hand is itchy to enter into the market, you may consider this trade. (I have no position in Oxley)
Entry: $0.305/$0.31
SL: $0.28
TP1: $0.34
TP2: $0.37

Overall: I will go with no position is still a position as for now unless those counters in my watch list show a better trade setup and trade signal with good reward to risk percentage.
Hint: Readers may take a look at CityDev (SGX: C09)

You are remind to trade base on your own risk. Plan and Trade well :)

(Returning Back) Market Update: 28 Apr 2019

Hi everyone, it has been close to 3 years since my last market update. Over the last 3 years, besides updating myself on the market and economy news, I have managed to pass CFA level 1 and attempted level 2 once before I paused it for my personal reason. Furthermore, after attended numerous of market events, different trading workshop and exploring on different trading strategies, I realized that all the above does not really improve on my trading accuracy but at least it does allow me to see the market from different perspective. I have been working in financial industry since 2014 (related to trading) and get to know that most of the victims in the market are our retail investors/traders due to limited knowledge. Even though I might not be a professional trainer or a successful trader, I believed the knowledge and experiences I gained over the years somehow sufficient enough to at least bring awareness to the retail (amateur) traders. Without further ado, I will start off with market update.

DJI – It has been a 23% uptrend since Dec 2018. The current price is at the top of the channel seemed like going to break above the all time high record. However, base on MACD, a bearish divergence is also forming. A decent pull back will be good for DJI. Therefore, I am monitoring for it to hit above 27000 (Whole figure) and keep a look out for reverse candle to short it down to 26000.

STI – It’s been uptrend since the start of year 2019. The current price is staying at the top of the channel conjunction with the 61.8% Fibo from the previous support line. (Highlighted in red circle) Most of the STI main component stocks going Ex-Dividend soon within this and next week. Once Ex-dividend plus the bearish divergence showing in DJI chart come true, I am looking for a pull-back for STI to hit around the 50% Fibo (3300). Overall: Since now is the earning reports season, watch out for your position size if you are doing any trades. We are entering the month of May whereby sell in May and go away may come in to hurt your profits. Learn to understand the beauty of no position is also a position. Going forward, besides sharing on market update and trades opportunity setup (Pre and post event), I will to input some basic trading guidance and hope that to provide a platform which consist of education purpose. I have setup a facebook page for the ease of sharing and posting any informative articles in future. If you are keen to join the community, click on the facebook link posted at the top right corner, follow and like my facebook page. You are remind to trade base on your own risk. Plan and Trade well :)

Market Update: 10 Jan 2016

Happy Belated New Year to Everyone of you. Apologize for the late blessing. Perhaps my in-due blessing caused the market to drop for the first week of 2016? (Just for Laugh)

Less than 1 month ago, I believe bearish market will hit both DJI, S&P and WTI which I shared in my previous post. The chart clearly show that there is a pull back after my post on 20 dec 2015 to test the support turn resistance diagonal line. I did shorted some at the point in NAS100 but I took my profit too early. Didn't expect the falling was so sharp and failed to find the re-entry point.
So, what can we expect in the coming second week of 2016? Lets go into the charting

Weekly DJI. Support in the yellow line

Monthly WTI. The outlook remain as the post on 20 Dec 2015

Will be sharing both DJI & WTI chart this week. My outlook for WTI remain intact since my last post. I believe it will reach $30 soon and perhaps break the $30 with any strong negative news.
I'm looking for DJI to hit whole figure number 16k before reaching the august 2015 low.

Overall: Why does US market react so badly even thou the Non-Farm payroll on last Friday came out to have a strong figure? Simple reason = Market is irrational. At the current stage, good news = bad news.
When strong figure reported last Friday, people worries that yellen aunty will continue to rate hike in the coming month. This figure supported the multiple rate hike "rumor" in year 2016 since the first rate hike on Dec 2015. A bearish market won't be that bad after all. People who wish to start investing can finally get a cheaper deal in the market. Invest carefully.


You are remind to trade base on your own risk. Plan and Trade well :)

Market Update: 20 Dec 2015

Not going to beat around the bush this time round. We are coming to the end of year 2015 and so what will be the trend for US market and Crude oil before the beginning of year 2016.
Lets go straight to the charts

S&P 500 weekly chart

DJI weekly chart

Base on both DJI and S&P chart showing that the market try to retest the high after FED announced rate hike but failed after friday closing. IMO, I believe more downside for the coming week and will be quite bearish if both DJI and S&P successfully closed below August low.

WTI month chart

Most trader start to speculate whether is there a rebound coming soon for WTI - crude oil. IMO, I believe WTI will try to test the low in 2008 at $32.5 and might even break through since FED announced rate hike last week.  However I believe is good to slowly accumulate and watchlist certain companies when the price hit around $25-$30. Slowly invest bit by bit since it might take 1 or 2 qtr of 2016 before it recover. (OPEC have the final say whether to recover or not)

 Overall: In theory, rate hike will definitely impact the economy in certain way and I believe will be a negative impact. However, the impact will not be immediate. To make it simple, during GFC, Fed reduce the rate to save the economy and how can it be that increase interest rate will improve the economy? (A real debatable question). 

Market Update: 18 Oct 2015

Its been 3 week after my last update. We have experienced the bull run over last 3 week whereby my DJI position also got stopped out. However it might be too late to turn contrarian as for now. I will continue to monitor further with no position on hand in the US market. For the upcoming week, I will share my view on STI and two individual counters. I may enter if the candle showing any entry signal.
So lets begin with the charts.

 DJI: I got stopped out from my short position at 17k where by the candle closed above the short signal on 17 Sep. I will stay out right now to monitor further before any action.

STI: Its been uptrend for the past 2 week till it come to the first resistance level 3050. The first resistance fall nicely into the Support turn resistant line plus 38.2% fibo. As for now, STI fall into the conjunction of both bull and bear decision. If 3050 successfully take over, it may continue to trend upward to the next fibo at 3150. (I will remain sideway till a clearer picture)

 DailyFarm: There is a channel position form in the weekly chart. Nicely fall within the channel.
Long: $6.3
SL: $5.9
Final TP: $8.1
 RRR: 4.5

Ho Bee: Weekly showing uptrend remain intact. Eyeing for opportunity to long this counter.
Long: $1.97
SL: $1.91
TP: $2.07
RRR: 1.667

Overall: Market still in between the bull and bear season since after US market index break below 200MA.
Watch out for the earning reports in US market and continue to monitor any sign of rate hike during the FOMC. Investors believe the Fed may push back the rate hike till year 2016. However as a trader, we continue to stay nimble and be strict in our stop lost to protect ourselves against any unforeseen news.

You are remind to trade base on your own risk. Plan and Trade well :)

Market Update: 27 Sep 2015

It’s been 10month since my last post. Finally I have graduated from my degree in finance. However the passion to enhance my financial knowledge does not stop here. I have registered myself for the next Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) Level 1 examination in 2016. Although to be a TA trader does not require having CFA certificate, I still wish to expose myself in this enormous finance world.

To be a TA trader, strict discipline must always be the number 1 rule. You got to be true to yourself in your performance. I see the different in my P&L with and without posting my trading journal in my blog. To be frank, I am not doing well compare to last year. Either I’m lack of discipline or the weak market sentiment caused it.

By now, most investors/traders should know that we are facing a weak/bearish market sentiment in the world exchange. Trader face no issue as their time frame is rather short compare to investor. For investor out there, some investor eying to offload their portfolio to prevent further bleeding while the rest will like to catch the bottom fish. (Example blue chip or REITs to earn dividend)

Investors who use discount model factor to calculate the intrinsic value of a company should be wary of the US interest rate hike in year 2015 confirmed by yellen last week. The increase of the interest rate will definitely erode the profit of the company balance sheet. Long term investors might like to stay put in the equity market and go for other product.

In my opinion, base on the DJI chart below, I feel that there might be another bear wave approaching the US exchange. I am eying to short on the rebound in the coming week and long once it reach near 15k with an entry candle signal.

You are remind to trade base on your own risk. Plan and Trade well :)

Market Update: 23 March 2014

This week. Let us review the same index on DJI, HSI, and STI plus review back all the counters which i mentioned on 12 march 2014.

DJI: By looking @ DJI, that long wick candlestick should tell you something for the upcoming week. We need another bearish candle to come in and act as a confirmation after that shooting stars candlestick.

HSI: Remember on the 9 march I did indicate to monitor closing after HSI showing pendant triangle? As for now under weekly chart, Hammer candlestick formed. Will this act as a trend reverse?

STI: Fake candlestick on the 20th March? Anyway STI maybe in ranger mood till either side of the green circle breakthrough. (very high chance it may go up next week if all the 3banks showing pullback sign)

YZJ: Nth much to say. consolidate and supported by 200d MA. If you not feeling confident to hold on to your short position, Just book in your profit. Money in pocket will never be wrong.

UOL: For those who trigger their short @ $6, You remind to watch this counter closely. Since there are sign of bullish candle showing for the last few days. It may be trying to form inverse H&S as $6.22 maybe the resistance line.

Cordlife: For those who have trigger directly after i mention on my blog the next following day. I hope by now you have already cut lost this counter @ $1.18. I'm sorry for the bad call.

Unionmet: Yet another bad call. I'm still trying my best to practice on penny counter.

You are remind to trade base on your own risk. Plan and Trade well :)

Overall: From the charts, as you can see i do not own a crystal ball to tell me what will happen in the coming week. All i have to do is strictly follow my trading plan and react as what the candle show and tell us. I'm sorry for those who have follow and triggered the bad trade.

Market Update: 09 March 2014

Dear readers,

Its been exactly 1month since my last post. I'm back once again after my major surgery and will continue to provide my own view on the market. I will always treat this blog as part of my trading journal to understand more about TA. Please do continue to support.

Anyway, we shall look into next week forecast movement for certain index and STI counters.
Let's begin with DJI:

DJI: Previously I have indicated a certain level to watch out in order to know which way will DJI move. Currently, we are eying DJI to reach the previous high to determine whether it will continue to soar for next record high or forming a double top. Continue to monitor closely.
(not advisable to trade since RR is not worth currently)

HSI currently stuck inbetween the mid price level which i indicate earlier before and forming pendant triangle chart pattern. Monitor closely to see which way will it break out to determine bull or bear.
(not advisable to trade, need more confirmation)

STI: Base on my last STI forecast, I did say STI will be going ahead towards 3100 and we shall monitor from there whether it will continue to break rest of the resistance @ 3165 & 3200 in the following week

IndoAgri: As we know commodities have been running since last week. OLAM, Noble, Wilmar, FirstRes. Now the slow and lack off will belong to IndoAgri. Will IndoAgri able to break through the bearish trend and enjoy the bull meat? Double bottom already showing first sign with good volume. Once $0.965 break we shall see $1.13. Rmb to do your RR before enter into this position.

YZJ: Marine Counter don't seem to be doing good. YZJ double top formed previously. Currently it show another chart pattern of cup and handle. If $1.1 break down, we shall see $1.055 (resisted by 200dMA), follow by final target $1.


You are remind to trade base on your own risk. Plan and Trade well :)

Overall, do remember the "war" between Russia & Ukraine will cause overnight panic and drag down the market plus certain counter. Do remember to trade those strong counters or control your position size which will able to withstand those "noise" period.

Market Update: 09 Feb 2014

DJI by right having inverse cup and handle where by the support @ 15720. However, friday closing above 15720. So now we shall see whether the green line able to act as the immediate resistance. If not we shall see DJI move to the next resistance level at around 16113. to form H&S.
If H&S formed, my target will be around 14900 by end of Feb.

STI in weekly chart showing a sign of rebounding candlestick. Apologies that i didn't on my 200d MA indicator. However the candlestick is below 200d MA. If next week the rebound able to sustain above 200d MA, we shall see STI go up to 3100. Two resistance level to watch out, if both break, bull will step in. First is the pink follow by the red resistance line.
However my view for STI still bearish.  My final target will be @ 2733 by end Feb.

Overall summary, DJI may been dropping past few days but it still within the uptrend channel till 14444 give way. So i may say DJI is still under the correction before the bear step in.
 As for STI, I guess the picture is much clearer for me to further explain. Bearish till 3247 give way. 


On the next following Monday, I will be going for my major surgery. (10days ward) So i won't be updating my blog till the beginning or mid March 2014. However both DJI & STI i have plot them in a longer view till end of FEB. Hopefully it hit my target by the time I'm back. 
I wish all my readers, all the best and trade well in the coming month. 

You are remind to trade base on your own risk. Plan and Trade well :)

Market Update: 15 Dec 2013

DJI have touched my predicted support which i posted earlier. Currently a collection may occur till FOMC data release on coming thursday morning (singapore time) to confirm the direction and whether FED will taper the QE due to good NFP data.

STI may have a rebound after 7day consistent of bear attack. Do watch out the price @ 3100. If break maybe it will try to cover the gap. Afterall i still believe STI will try to touch 3000 final point.

SATS have been well supported by 200D MA & have not been breach through so far. However will the bearish STI, will SATS remain to be sustain by 200D MA? Break $3.05 will bring SATS into bear mode while not it will continue its bullish trend.

Market Update: 08 Dec 2013

Last Friday (NFP) the jobless rate fell to a five-year low of 7 percent last month as payrolls swelled by 203,000 after a revised 200,000 increase in October, figures showed by the Labor Department.
The reports caused DJI to climb back and closed above 16000. Many economists believed that with such strong data will allow the next FOMC to begin reducing $85 billion in monthly bond purchases at Dec 17-18 meeting.

DJI show a rebound after strong NFP data came in on friday night. We shall see whether DJI will continue its bullish trend or will be trending side way until FOMC. Perhaps late buyer which rush in after NFP data caused the bullish candlestick.

STI finally broke through both 38% FIBO and symmetrical triangle. Currently with the strong NFP data on friday night perhaps may cause a pullback in STI plus with the "doji" candlestick closed on friday, high chance it may crawl back to close the gap which I highlighted in the chart or maybe back to 38% FIBO which turn from support to resistance.

GentingSP is the current stock I am following closely to see how it turn out to be. Since STI may have a high chance to pullback on the coming week, GentingSP as a 30 component under STI may likely to follow too.

Overall for the coming week:
STI seem to be isolated by other indices. It may not be affected by the strong NFP data which came in on last friday night. Do watch out STI closely & plan wisely for every single trade before trigger.

STI figure to watch out for:
Resistance: 3170
Support: 3100

Market Update: 30 Nov 2013

We have come to the last month of 2013. Usually December seem to be low volatility month where by people start packing their luggage for holidays especially Index like STI which been floating sideway for so long. However the bull on other indices seems not interested for a holiday trip yet. They have been going higher and higher where by people believe X’mas gift will come before the day itself.
Anyway let’s look back on those indices which I charted out last week and another 2 chart which consist of Gold & AUDNZD. 

Please trade wisely :)

DJI seem like going to approach my highlighted resistance. Watch out for any reverse candlestick

HangSeng have touched 24000. If the next candlestick able to stay above this 24k whole figure resistance. Watch out for the next resistance.

Shanghai in the weekly chart candlestick show a successfully breakout which i have pointed out last week on my blog. Let's see whether it able to go for the next resistance.

STI remain the least movement for the week. symmetrical triangle still in play. Like I mentioned during last week. Perhaps STI will stuck inbetween the FIBO till end of year.

Congrats to those who follow my blog and traded on this breakout in the 4Hour chart. For those who traded on the breakout, my advise will be do a trail stop or step breakeven your stoplost.

AUDNZD have been in trend playing for weeks. The first circle which break below the support may seem to be a fake breakout. If you are keen in this trade. my advise will be: Entry after it break the trend line which i draw on the chart with a stop lost @ 1.110. RR is good with a 90pips stop lost over 300pips of profit target. (side note, both currency are strong and they are interested to lower the strength of their currency. So wont be one-sided game. Side way trading will seem to be fine)

Market indices update 24 Nov 2013

DJI have been closing daily high and everyone is guessing how high it will actually hit before the table turn. Mentally when the trend is in your favor, no one wish there will be a ceiling to stop it. However I will keep a look out for the 3points show in the chart.

(a) Resistance around 16200-16400

(b) Pull back to 15720

(c) Bearish trend start once 14789 break.

Watch out for HSI FIBO 100% @ 24000. If it manage to break FIBO 100%, then we target to see 24445 which the highest in 2011. If not, we will see whether HSI will be able to cover the gap show in the chart.

Shanghai in the weekly chart show that it have break through the bearish trend. However been resisted by 100W MA. If it able to close above the 100W MA, 2235/2272, we target 2437. If not the bearish trend will resume if break 2076 and will see 1970. 

STI last Thursday & Friday closed with 2 little hammer at FIBO 38.2%. Still consider within the symmetrical triangle. However if this week STI continue to fall and below the 2 little hammer, we till watch the price @ 3125/3100.  If not STI symmetrical triangle will continue to be in play or perhaps it will bound between FIBO 38.2% and 50% throughout the last week of the month or the year if only Capricorn effect do not take place