Market Update: 12 May 2019

Ongoing US-China trade war will be the spark for the upcoming week. Last Friday, Thanos (Trump) threat to raise tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese exports from 10% to 25%, making a sharp escalation in tension between the world’s two largest economics. The coming days could be crucial waiting for China’s response.

DJI recovered around 300+ points and closed above the channel last Friday. Based on the chart, DJI might climb to around 26300 points or trade within the channel if it break above 26300. I believed Thanos (as a business man) will not destroy this bullish market created by him. However, he may create an artificial bearish as a reason for Fed to reduce interest rate. Nevertheless, DJI chart show a good trade setup to go long. SL once the price closes below the channel.

STI showing no clear signal after it has traded down over the last week from 3400 point. As I mentioned previously, no position consider as a position. Those who bought during the fake breakout highlighted in yellow, are trapped at the moment. I will continue to stay aside from STI till a better trade setup appears.

WTI is trading between 50% & 61.8% Fibo currently. Base on the weekly chart, WTI failed to close above the S/R line at $64. Therefore, I assume WTI will continue to trade sideways between 50% & 61.8% and high chance will reach to 38.2% ($58 follow by $55.70).

Overall: Everyone is waiting for Mr.Bear to hit the market. However, if crisis can be predicted accurately, it will not be name as a crisis. I strongly believed a Chinese comic idiom: “成也风云败也风云” which can be use over here as “成也特朗普败特朗普” (The idiom mean success and failure are both due to the same factor)

You are remind to trade base on your own risk. Plan and Trade well :)

Market Update: 10 Jan 2016

Happy Belated New Year to Everyone of you. Apologize for the late blessing. Perhaps my in-due blessing caused the market to drop for the first week of 2016? (Just for Laugh)

Less than 1 month ago, I believe bearish market will hit both DJI, S&P and WTI which I shared in my previous post. The chart clearly show that there is a pull back after my post on 20 dec 2015 to test the support turn resistance diagonal line. I did shorted some at the point in NAS100 but I took my profit too early. Didn't expect the falling was so sharp and failed to find the re-entry point.
So, what can we expect in the coming second week of 2016? Lets go into the charting

Weekly DJI. Support in the yellow line

Monthly WTI. The outlook remain as the post on 20 Dec 2015

Will be sharing both DJI & WTI chart this week. My outlook for WTI remain intact since my last post. I believe it will reach $30 soon and perhaps break the $30 with any strong negative news.
I'm looking for DJI to hit whole figure number 16k before reaching the august 2015 low.

Overall: Why does US market react so badly even thou the Non-Farm payroll on last Friday came out to have a strong figure? Simple reason = Market is irrational. At the current stage, good news = bad news.
When strong figure reported last Friday, people worries that yellen aunty will continue to rate hike in the coming month. This figure supported the multiple rate hike "rumor" in year 2016 since the first rate hike on Dec 2015. A bearish market won't be that bad after all. People who wish to start investing can finally get a cheaper deal in the market. Invest carefully.


You are remind to trade base on your own risk. Plan and Trade well :)

Market Update: 20 Dec 2015

Not going to beat around the bush this time round. We are coming to the end of year 2015 and so what will be the trend for US market and Crude oil before the beginning of year 2016.
Lets go straight to the charts

S&P 500 weekly chart

DJI weekly chart

Base on both DJI and S&P chart showing that the market try to retest the high after FED announced rate hike but failed after friday closing. IMO, I believe more downside for the coming week and will be quite bearish if both DJI and S&P successfully closed below August low.

WTI month chart

Most trader start to speculate whether is there a rebound coming soon for WTI - crude oil. IMO, I believe WTI will try to test the low in 2008 at $32.5 and might even break through since FED announced rate hike last week.  However I believe is good to slowly accumulate and watchlist certain companies when the price hit around $25-$30. Slowly invest bit by bit since it might take 1 or 2 qtr of 2016 before it recover. (OPEC have the final say whether to recover or not)

 Overall: In theory, rate hike will definitely impact the economy in certain way and I believe will be a negative impact. However, the impact will not be immediate. To make it simple, during GFC, Fed reduce the rate to save the economy and how can it be that increase interest rate will improve the economy? (A real debatable question).