Market Update: 12 May 2019

Ongoing US-China trade war will be the spark for the upcoming week. Last Friday, Thanos (Trump) threat to raise tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese exports from 10% to 25%, making a sharp escalation in tension between the world’s two largest economics. The coming days could be crucial waiting for China’s response.

DJI recovered around 300+ points and closed above the channel last Friday. Based on the chart, DJI might climb to around 26300 points or trade within the channel if it break above 26300. I believed Thanos (as a business man) will not destroy this bullish market created by him. However, he may create an artificial bearish as a reason for Fed to reduce interest rate. Nevertheless, DJI chart show a good trade setup to go long. SL once the price closes below the channel.

STI showing no clear signal after it has traded down over the last week from 3400 point. As I mentioned previously, no position consider as a position. Those who bought during the fake breakout highlighted in yellow, are trapped at the moment. I will continue to stay aside from STI till a better trade setup appears.

WTI is trading between 50% & 61.8% Fibo currently. Base on the weekly chart, WTI failed to close above the S/R line at $64. Therefore, I assume WTI will continue to trade sideways between 50% & 61.8% and high chance will reach to 38.2% ($58 follow by $55.70).

Overall: Everyone is waiting for Mr.Bear to hit the market. However, if crisis can be predicted accurately, it will not be name as a crisis. I strongly believed a Chinese comic idiom: “成也风云败也风云” which can be use over here as “成也特朗普败特朗普” (The idiom mean success and failure are both due to the same factor)

You are remind to trade base on your own risk. Plan and Trade well :)

Market Update: 05 May 2019

Last Friday, US Nonfarm payroll easily beat Wall Street expectation with the actual figure of 263k increased by 196k in March of 2019. Unemployment rate fell to 3.6% vs 3.8% expected and the lowest since December 1969. US interest rates remain unchanged and investors had begun to expect that the Fed might signal a rate cut.

1) When Fed lowers Interest rate, lending becomes cheaper, increasing the flower of money. But inflation can become a problem.
2) When Fed raises interest rate, lending gets more expensive, this can slow down the economy. But it generally lowers inflation.

However, if Fed decides to lower the rate, the economy could be in danger of overheating, driving inflation. Cutting rates now would also take away weapons in Fed’s arsenal in the event of an economic downturn as the interest rates are only at 2.5% which doesn’t leave much room for rate cuts.

With the above information, does it really affect you will still depend on your trading time horizon. Going forward, I will be sharing simple trading strategies that a trader must include such as Time Horizon. Without further ado, we shall start with STI charting.

 STI continue to climb up to 3400 point which broke above the 61.8% Fibo from the previous support line. I take no position even though it has reached my red circle zone which I have shared in my last market update. I am monitoring closely waiting for a trade setup and trade signal to come into play. Remember that no position is still a position. (Most traders fail to aware that due to their hand itchiness and always wish to participate in the market)

DJI – Even though last Friday US reported such a bullish data, but the market failed to break through the all time high. This might be because no one wishes to be trap entering at the high price. I will continue to monitor at 27k and wait for a reverse candle.

Oxley has sold Chevron House for up to $1.025 billion with terms in the contract. Base on the chart, the price closed above 200MA. If your hand is itchy to enter into the market, you may consider this trade. (I have no position in Oxley)
Entry: $0.305/$0.31
SL: $0.28
TP1: $0.34
TP2: $0.37

Overall: I will go with no position is still a position as for now unless those counters in my watch list show a better trade setup and trade signal with good reward to risk percentage.
Hint: Readers may take a look at CityDev (SGX: C09)

You are remind to trade base on your own risk. Plan and Trade well :)

(Returning Back) Market Update: 28 Apr 2019

Hi everyone, it has been close to 3 years since my last market update. Over the last 3 years, besides updating myself on the market and economy news, I have managed to pass CFA level 1 and attempted level 2 once before I paused it for my personal reason. Furthermore, after attended numerous of market events, different trading workshop and exploring on different trading strategies, I realized that all the above does not really improve on my trading accuracy but at least it does allow me to see the market from different perspective. I have been working in financial industry since 2014 (related to trading) and get to know that most of the victims in the market are our retail investors/traders due to limited knowledge. Even though I might not be a professional trainer or a successful trader, I believed the knowledge and experiences I gained over the years somehow sufficient enough to at least bring awareness to the retail (amateur) traders. Without further ado, I will start off with market update.

DJI – It has been a 23% uptrend since Dec 2018. The current price is at the top of the channel seemed like going to break above the all time high record. However, base on MACD, a bearish divergence is also forming. A decent pull back will be good for DJI. Therefore, I am monitoring for it to hit above 27000 (Whole figure) and keep a look out for reverse candle to short it down to 26000.

STI – It’s been uptrend since the start of year 2019. The current price is staying at the top of the channel conjunction with the 61.8% Fibo from the previous support line. (Highlighted in red circle) Most of the STI main component stocks going Ex-Dividend soon within this and next week. Once Ex-dividend plus the bearish divergence showing in DJI chart come true, I am looking for a pull-back for STI to hit around the 50% Fibo (3300). Overall: Since now is the earning reports season, watch out for your position size if you are doing any trades. We are entering the month of May whereby sell in May and go away may come in to hurt your profits. Learn to understand the beauty of no position is also a position. Going forward, besides sharing on market update and trades opportunity setup (Pre and post event), I will to input some basic trading guidance and hope that to provide a platform which consist of education purpose. I have setup a facebook page for the ease of sharing and posting any informative articles in future. If you are keen to join the community, click on the facebook link posted at the top right corner, follow and like my facebook page. You are remind to trade base on your own risk. Plan and Trade well :)

Market Update: 17 July 2016

Hi everyone. I'm back. We are now into the second half of 2016. Since after BRexit, market seem to absorb the impact and back to square 1. As we can see that from US index and FTSE charts which broke the all time high of 2016. However, in our local market, STI still seem to be lagging behind. As I always mentioned, 3000 is the key point for STI to determine over or under value. STI need to break above the "BIG" standard point "3000" before heading to 3100. This week update, I will show 2 SGX counters and STI index chart. Without further ado, lets go into charting.

STI - Heading towards 3000 since most of the western index & HSI have already broke their 2016 all time high. From the chart, we can see inverse H&S forming in weekly chart and 3100 will be a resistance for STI show in the weekly 100MA.

YZJ - Seem to be a lagged counter which have yet to be move. YZJ will be highly recommend base on charting. Both setup and entry points found in the chart. SL once it break below 0.84. (I hold no position yet but soon will).

Singpost - Downtrend chart since beginning of 2015. The descending triangle, lower high and the chart which can't thrust through the previous support indicate the downtrend persist. Beside that, the news of resignation from the CEO, CFO and COO in a year show a weak corporate governance. Furthermore, most of the investors invest singpost due to their fix and stable dividend, however singpost may plunge once if singpost cut their dividend payout. People who wish to short Singpost, remember to set your SL @ 1.69/1.7 once the lower high become invalid.
Those who prefer to long and keep in their portfolio (Like me), I will advise to monitor around 1.43 and long around 1.3. Who knows Singpost might be another counter like SMRT where by governments to take over.

Overall: Buy when everyone is bearish and sell when everyone is bullish. I believe this sentence is well known. As now, market is at all time high, be caution whenever you long. The steam might lose it power for another push. Long term investors gotta monitor their portfolio more frequently and equities is not the only product to add into your portfolio. I still believe the strength in USD and the bull might resume once Fed decide to go for rate hike in Sep 2016.


You are remind to trade base on your own risk. Plan and Trade well :)

Market Update: 18 Oct 2015

Its been 3 week after my last update. We have experienced the bull run over last 3 week whereby my DJI position also got stopped out. However it might be too late to turn contrarian as for now. I will continue to monitor further with no position on hand in the US market. For the upcoming week, I will share my view on STI and two individual counters. I may enter if the candle showing any entry signal.
So lets begin with the charts.

 DJI: I got stopped out from my short position at 17k where by the candle closed above the short signal on 17 Sep. I will stay out right now to monitor further before any action.

STI: Its been uptrend for the past 2 week till it come to the first resistance level 3050. The first resistance fall nicely into the Support turn resistant line plus 38.2% fibo. As for now, STI fall into the conjunction of both bull and bear decision. If 3050 successfully take over, it may continue to trend upward to the next fibo at 3150. (I will remain sideway till a clearer picture)

 DailyFarm: There is a channel position form in the weekly chart. Nicely fall within the channel.
Long: $6.3
SL: $5.9
Final TP: $8.1
 RRR: 4.5

Ho Bee: Weekly showing uptrend remain intact. Eyeing for opportunity to long this counter.
Long: $1.97
SL: $1.91
TP: $2.07
RRR: 1.667

Overall: Market still in between the bull and bear season since after US market index break below 200MA.
Watch out for the earning reports in US market and continue to monitor any sign of rate hike during the FOMC. Investors believe the Fed may push back the rate hike till year 2016. However as a trader, we continue to stay nimble and be strict in our stop lost to protect ourselves against any unforeseen news.

You are remind to trade base on your own risk. Plan and Trade well :)

Market Update: 30 Nov 2014

Hi guys, been quite busy recently. (Due to exam). However still wish to be discipline to update my blog as regularly as possible. Last week biggest news shall be OPEC. Decide the future of the oil price! So I guess most of the investor/trader should know that crude oil drop below $70 while most of the oil counters plunge badly! So who are those who actually benefit while oil price drop below $70? Retailer? (Don't seem so because petrol price never drop eventually) However counters that related to oil such as "SIA" have been really bullish! Plus a little push on tigerair share price too. (Why? = Due to oil price cheap, expenses for SIA = low, Earning increase =UP, Stock go bullish).
So which counters shall be the next upcoming that will be benefit from the drop of oil price? Let see from the chart. I will be sharing with one of the counters.

 STI: Closed on 3350 as i predicted! As for now, No direction. Shall wait for the next move.

Jardine C&C: Will it hit my next target @ $43? For those who eying @ $44.55, beware as the last target is the hardest.

Haw Par: Seem good to go. Back on the bullish trend? 

Entry $8.61, 

TP: $8.78

SL: $8.55

NOL: So this shall be the next counter which benefit from the plunging of the oil price. 

As you can see YZJ having been bullish for quite some time, NOL started to pick up the steam of it. 

Do monitor closely for those who are keen to hop onto this ride. Plan wisely and you will be safe cruising with it )

Overall: My last few counter have manage to hit my TP (genting successfully hit $1.15, Breadtalk, Jardine C&C)

Now left venture & M1. Both counters still in play, As the chart look completely valid as till now! 

Those who are going anti trend O&G counters, becareful! 

You will never know when will OPEC host for the next meeting. 

Meantime, I believe oil will continue to fall perhaps hitting $65/$60/barrel.

Enjoy shorting O&G counters. People who are interested to short US Oil counters, take a look at COP and CJES.

You are remind to trade base on your own risk. Plan and Trade well :)

Market Update: 22 Nov 2014

Hi GUYS!! (HAPPY PROFITING LAST WEEK?)

What a great start for the first week after 1year of journey over here. Hitting 100% trading call! So happy but not to be over contented. Because trading is a journey. Always stay humble and have the mentality to learn more. Anyway I shall have a quick update over my last week recommendation including introduce 2counters which im monitoring currently. I have quite number of counters on hand but yet not ready to share.

STI: Only 3point away from my target last week. But anyway I believe my target will trigger for this coming week. Perhaps our next target will be @ 3380.

Jardine C&C: So did anyone of you follow my trading call last week where i mention to enter @ $40 if possible? Happy profiting for those who follow! Do a trailing stop if you believe it will hit the next target @ $43. As for me, Jardine may be dancing around the FIBO 50% & 61.8% range.

Genting SP: Anyone huat from Genting SP? Catching the reversal? Rob Genting SP if you kena rob by them in the casino! ^^. Those who are still inside this counter, maybe can try to aim for the next target @ $1.15

Breadtalk: The first counter which let me smile for the week!! First day hit my profit after recommending over the last sunday. Anyone Huat from this LOTI counter? ^^

 M1: Have been monitoring this counter closely last week. Didn't manage to catch pullback. However I believe the underlying strength in M1, looking for an opportunity to enter. Do your own trading plan! I stated my TP only in the chart :)

Venture: Double btm! (invalid if it break the second low)
Entry once it break $7.73 or within the ascending triangle.
TP: $7.8/$7.9/$7.97
SL:Do your own risk management.


Overall: There are number of people asking my strategies. How do I do my charting, TP, SL and entry point. However it is hard to explain, because sometime the longer you do your own charting, you create a invisble bond between you and the chart. Somehow you know how the way it move. There are number of counters currently in my watchlist. However the timing may not be right yet for me to share. If you do wish to monitor together, here is some of my list: Yanlord (up), Sino Grandness (up), UE E&C (up)

You are remind to trade base on your own risk. Plan and Trade well :)

Market Update: 16 Nov 2014

Hello Everyone!
Officially step into second year of my trading journal. Hopefully, I’m able to achieve better results than last year. Since it is only my second year of trading journal, I will remain my risk appetite ($200/counter) and continue to eye for high probability counters with good Risk Reward. I will still remain in SGX equities before shifting myself into US market. (I know Alibaba is yummy, ^^)

So I shall begin with my usual market update. I will be going through HSI, STI and some counters with my entry position and counter which have to beware of.

 HSI: I guess many readers may have aware of the "Hong Kong–Shanghai Stock Connect Program". Perhaps this will act as a "redbull" to HSI for the coming week. Eying HSI to reach 24700 before the final target at 25200. People who wish to speculate in HSI index, beware of the "redbull" in town.
 

 STI: Eying STI to hit 3350 in the coming 1-2week time. However if STI drop back below 3250, we will fall back to 3200 and the bullish sign will be invalid.

Breadtalk: Bread is getting expensive nowadays. No wonder their Q3 Net profit up 15.6% this year. Anyway, i have set my entry exit and tp price in the image. Hopefully it turn out to be a good one. (Volume is needed for this game plan)

 Jardine C&C: Elephant counter in SGX. Currently the pricing is floating around 50% Fibo in year 2014.
However the weekly chart showing lots of hammer candlesticks. I'm eying for it to hit the next FIBO level at 61.8% and believe it will hit 78.6% eventually.
SL: $39 (Is a MUST!)

 Genting SP: What is wrong with this counter. So bearish! Will it be kick out from the mainboard next year? Anyway i'm calling to go long in this counter. It is an Anti-Trend playing. *BEWARE*
Super high risk counter to go anti-trend. However I manage to get some signs that it may reverse or perhaps we shall say as "technical pullback?"Anyway Strict and tight SL is needed for this counter!!
SL: $1

SATS: Weekly chart! 2Q15 Net Profit down 3.3% to S$47.1 Million. Will it because of this causing SATS to go bearish? Anyway SATS manage to close below 100W MA. I believe more room to fall in this counter. Do watch out that "The Board of Directors has declared an interim dividend of 5 cents per share, payable on 12 December 2014. The book closure date is 1 December 2014" Maybe after getting the dividend in Dec,   the major shareholder will throw white towel and this counter will start plunging down? (No call from me, just monitoring)

Overall: Hopefully people who follow my blog closely manage to gain some positive results in their portfolio. I have fine tune my strategy and hope that it will help me to achieve a better result this time round. Still working on my basic TA sharing session or perhaps shall call it a basic session for beginners who wish to enter into finance world and start their own investing. (Saving could no longer help us to get out from the rat race, something gotta be done!)

You are remind to trade base on your own risk. Plan and Trade well :)

Market Update: 01 Oct 2014

Hi Guys. Sorry for the long waiting. I'm back to update my blog again. Going through those counters i recommended on my previous market update and plus introduce one addition counter.
But anyway, previously i did mention about revamping my blog and provide some basic TA sharing session.
I guess I will revamp my blog first over this weekend, and in the mean time, I’m currently working with my friends to plan how to conduct the basic TA sharing sessions. Perhaps this session ideally target those people who start and keen to learn how to trade using TA. Of course, it does include and cater for different category of levels. We do not wish to waste your time going through those basic again & again. We are still planning and hope it will be on live ASAP. Those beginner or those who wish to learn my trading style, just drop me a email to find out more :)

Let's move on to the charting :)

STI: As mentioned before base on that two candlestick. Does it prove the theory of TA? Target hitting soon!

Ezra: Hit my second Profit! Happy like Mad :) ~~~ Did you follow my call?

Keppel Land: Wa sibei heng! I did mentioned if only it closed below $3.4 then short it. So trade invalid!

Noble: Sad Baby! When it first break below $1.35, it dropped all the way to $1.305!!!! only $0.005 away from my first profit. End up I have to cut lost in my counter. But that is part and parcel in trading life. You gotta be strict in your plan to survive :)

SMRT: Be ware and watch out! the golden cross didn't work out. It back to ranging mode! Monitor closely if you are still inside :)

YZJ: This is the counter im currently eying on! H&S forming at the top channel! Monitor closely if you wish to catch this big fish! Overall market seem bearish plus the riot in HK! This should be the next counter zooming south!! :)

Overall: There are lots of index currently oversold and at all time high. No one dare to Long and waiting for a major news or hero to short the index. Those who are not well equip, kindly remain sideline from the market before you get burn. My friend and I will be eying to start our small noobie courses to prepare others for the coming year 2015. Those who are interested to join our polite session, Just drop me an email. I will provide more detail to you personally. :)

You are remind to trade base on your own risk. Plan and Trade well :)