Weekly Market Update & Trade Signal (Paid Services)

HI Everyone ~~~~ I have good stuff to share !!

Weekly Market Update & Trade Signal Services 

click here to find out more - PTA

Time flies without us notice. I have started this blog 10 years ago mainly to share on my trading journey. However, after 10 years of trading, 8 years working in the financial industry (Related to equity), I have decided to step up and provide weekly market update & trade signal services. 

Who should subscribe to this services?

People with NO TIME, No Discipline, No Trading Experience & Inconsistent Green P&L.

No Time: 

• Student (Busy with school work),
• Working Adult (Busy with work commitment)

No Discipline: 

• Always looking to participate into the market
• Always shift TP/SL
• Always looking at the chart (Money Salve) 

No Trading Experience: 

• Novice in the Market.
• Do not foreseen the risk in the market.
• Looking for Trading Guru out there.

                                       

Inconsistent Green P&L:

• Have been trading years in the market but P&L inconsistent.
• Poor risk management. 

                                  

Why charge?

There is no free lunch in this world and I went through all the hard work to achieve the humble result currently.

Each week, I burned minimum 8 hours from news reading to charting to create 1 weekly video to share with you. (You know the math to know how little I make) 

What do I get if I subscribe?   

• Weekly Market Update.
• 3 to 5 signal monthly
• Exact Entry, SL & TP
• Money Management Guide
• Review Trades,
• Minimum 1:1 Risk-Reward
• Provide TA Charting Explanation

There is no short cut in learning TA or perhaps investing/trading in the equity market. If you wish to opt for an easy way out to save time, you may choose to subscribe and try it out yourself.

Otherwise, if you have time to commit, I will strongly recommend you to hire someone to coach you or find and pay some legit 4 figure $ course fees out there.

Market Update: 12 May 2019

Ongoing US-China trade war will be the spark for the upcoming week. Last Friday, Thanos (Trump) threat to raise tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese exports from 10% to 25%, making a sharp escalation in tension between the world’s two largest economics. The coming days could be crucial waiting for China’s response.

DJI recovered around 300+ points and closed above the channel last Friday. Based on the chart, DJI might climb to around 26300 points or trade within the channel if it break above 26300. I believed Thanos (as a business man) will not destroy this bullish market created by him. However, he may create an artificial bearish as a reason for Fed to reduce interest rate. Nevertheless, DJI chart show a good trade setup to go long. SL once the price closes below the channel.

STI showing no clear signal after it has traded down over the last week from 3400 point. As I mentioned previously, no position consider as a position. Those who bought during the fake breakout highlighted in yellow, are trapped at the moment. I will continue to stay aside from STI till a better trade setup appears.

WTI is trading between 50% & 61.8% Fibo currently. Base on the weekly chart, WTI failed to close above the S/R line at $64. Therefore, I assume WTI will continue to trade sideways between 50% & 61.8% and high chance will reach to 38.2% ($58 follow by $55.70).

Overall: Everyone is waiting for Mr.Bear to hit the market. However, if crisis can be predicted accurately, it will not be name as a crisis. I strongly believed a Chinese comic idiom: “成也风云败也风云” which can be use over here as “成也特朗普败特朗普” (The idiom mean success and failure are both due to the same factor)

You are remind to trade base on your own risk. Plan and Trade well :)

Weekday Market Update: 06 May 2019

Trumps' finger snap and the market plunge down on Monday. However, whether the reason is due to market over react or everyone is looking for a reason to sell down the market, I manage to spot a trade sharing in my facebook page.

SGX - We can see that SGX has been trading side way channel after the price drop from $8. Thanks to Trump, I shared this trade in my facebook page today. Short @ $7.33 and set TP at $7.18 (By right is $7.2 but investing note doesn't allow). If the market doesn't recover after 1 or 2 days, can try for final TP @ $7.

You are remind to trade base on your own risk. Plan and Trade well :)

Market Update: 05 May 2019

Last Friday, US Nonfarm payroll easily beat Wall Street expectation with the actual figure of 263k increased by 196k in March of 2019. Unemployment rate fell to 3.6% vs 3.8% expected and the lowest since December 1969. US interest rates remain unchanged and investors had begun to expect that the Fed might signal a rate cut.

1) When Fed lowers Interest rate, lending becomes cheaper, increasing the flower of money. But inflation can become a problem.
2) When Fed raises interest rate, lending gets more expensive, this can slow down the economy. But it generally lowers inflation.

However, if Fed decides to lower the rate, the economy could be in danger of overheating, driving inflation. Cutting rates now would also take away weapons in Fed’s arsenal in the event of an economic downturn as the interest rates are only at 2.5% which doesn’t leave much room for rate cuts.

With the above information, does it really affect you will still depend on your trading time horizon. Going forward, I will be sharing simple trading strategies that a trader must include such as Time Horizon. Without further ado, we shall start with STI charting.

 STI continue to climb up to 3400 point which broke above the 61.8% Fibo from the previous support line. I take no position even though it has reached my red circle zone which I have shared in my last market update. I am monitoring closely waiting for a trade setup and trade signal to come into play. Remember that no position is still a position. (Most traders fail to aware that due to their hand itchiness and always wish to participate in the market)

DJI – Even though last Friday US reported such a bullish data, but the market failed to break through the all time high. This might be because no one wishes to be trap entering at the high price. I will continue to monitor at 27k and wait for a reverse candle.

Oxley has sold Chevron House for up to $1.025 billion with terms in the contract. Base on the chart, the price closed above 200MA. If your hand is itchy to enter into the market, you may consider this trade. (I have no position in Oxley)
Entry: $0.305/$0.31
SL: $0.28
TP1: $0.34
TP2: $0.37

Overall: I will go with no position is still a position as for now unless those counters in my watch list show a better trade setup and trade signal with good reward to risk percentage.
Hint: Readers may take a look at CityDev (SGX: C09)

You are remind to trade base on your own risk. Plan and Trade well :)

(Returning Back) Market Update: 28 Apr 2019

Hi everyone, it has been close to 3 years since my last market update. Over the last 3 years, besides updating myself on the market and economy news, I have managed to pass CFA level 1 and attempted level 2 once before I paused it for my personal reason. Furthermore, after attended numerous of market events, different trading workshop and exploring on different trading strategies, I realized that all the above does not really improve on my trading accuracy but at least it does allow me to see the market from different perspective. I have been working in financial industry since 2014 (related to trading) and get to know that most of the victims in the market are our retail investors/traders due to limited knowledge. Even though I might not be a professional trainer or a successful trader, I believed the knowledge and experiences I gained over the years somehow sufficient enough to at least bring awareness to the retail (amateur) traders. Without further ado, I will start off with market update.

DJI – It has been a 23% uptrend since Dec 2018. The current price is at the top of the channel seemed like going to break above the all time high record. However, base on MACD, a bearish divergence is also forming. A decent pull back will be good for DJI. Therefore, I am monitoring for it to hit above 27000 (Whole figure) and keep a look out for reverse candle to short it down to 26000.

STI – It’s been uptrend since the start of year 2019. The current price is staying at the top of the channel conjunction with the 61.8% Fibo from the previous support line. (Highlighted in red circle) Most of the STI main component stocks going Ex-Dividend soon within this and next week. Once Ex-dividend plus the bearish divergence showing in DJI chart come true, I am looking for a pull-back for STI to hit around the 50% Fibo (3300). Overall: Since now is the earning reports season, watch out for your position size if you are doing any trades. We are entering the month of May whereby sell in May and go away may come in to hurt your profits. Learn to understand the beauty of no position is also a position. Going forward, besides sharing on market update and trades opportunity setup (Pre and post event), I will to input some basic trading guidance and hope that to provide a platform which consist of education purpose. I have setup a facebook page for the ease of sharing and posting any informative articles in future. If you are keen to join the community, click on the facebook link posted at the top right corner, follow and like my facebook page. You are remind to trade base on your own risk. Plan and Trade well :)

Market Update: 17 July 2016

Hi everyone. I'm back. We are now into the second half of 2016. Since after BRexit, market seem to absorb the impact and back to square 1. As we can see that from US index and FTSE charts which broke the all time high of 2016. However, in our local market, STI still seem to be lagging behind. As I always mentioned, 3000 is the key point for STI to determine over or under value. STI need to break above the "BIG" standard point "3000" before heading to 3100. This week update, I will show 2 SGX counters and STI index chart. Without further ado, lets go into charting.

STI - Heading towards 3000 since most of the western index & HSI have already broke their 2016 all time high. From the chart, we can see inverse H&S forming in weekly chart and 3100 will be a resistance for STI show in the weekly 100MA.

YZJ - Seem to be a lagged counter which have yet to be move. YZJ will be highly recommend base on charting. Both setup and entry points found in the chart. SL once it break below 0.84. (I hold no position yet but soon will).

Singpost - Downtrend chart since beginning of 2015. The descending triangle, lower high and the chart which can't thrust through the previous support indicate the downtrend persist. Beside that, the news of resignation from the CEO, CFO and COO in a year show a weak corporate governance. Furthermore, most of the investors invest singpost due to their fix and stable dividend, however singpost may plunge once if singpost cut their dividend payout. People who wish to short Singpost, remember to set your SL @ 1.69/1.7 once the lower high become invalid.
Those who prefer to long and keep in their portfolio (Like me), I will advise to monitor around 1.43 and long around 1.3. Who knows Singpost might be another counter like SMRT where by governments to take over.

Overall: Buy when everyone is bearish and sell when everyone is bullish. I believe this sentence is well known. As now, market is at all time high, be caution whenever you long. The steam might lose it power for another push. Long term investors gotta monitor their portfolio more frequently and equities is not the only product to add into your portfolio. I still believe the strength in USD and the bull might resume once Fed decide to go for rate hike in Sep 2016.


You are remind to trade base on your own risk. Plan and Trade well :)

Market Update: 10 Jan 2016

Happy Belated New Year to Everyone of you. Apologize for the late blessing. Perhaps my in-due blessing caused the market to drop for the first week of 2016? (Just for Laugh)

Less than 1 month ago, I believe bearish market will hit both DJI, S&P and WTI which I shared in my previous post. The chart clearly show that there is a pull back after my post on 20 dec 2015 to test the support turn resistance diagonal line. I did shorted some at the point in NAS100 but I took my profit too early. Didn't expect the falling was so sharp and failed to find the re-entry point.
So, what can we expect in the coming second week of 2016? Lets go into the charting

Weekly DJI. Support in the yellow line

Monthly WTI. The outlook remain as the post on 20 Dec 2015

Will be sharing both DJI & WTI chart this week. My outlook for WTI remain intact since my last post. I believe it will reach $30 soon and perhaps break the $30 with any strong negative news.
I'm looking for DJI to hit whole figure number 16k before reaching the august 2015 low.

Overall: Why does US market react so badly even thou the Non-Farm payroll on last Friday came out to have a strong figure? Simple reason = Market is irrational. At the current stage, good news = bad news.
When strong figure reported last Friday, people worries that yellen aunty will continue to rate hike in the coming month. This figure supported the multiple rate hike "rumor" in year 2016 since the first rate hike on Dec 2015. A bearish market won't be that bad after all. People who wish to start investing can finally get a cheaper deal in the market. Invest carefully.


You are remind to trade base on your own risk. Plan and Trade well :)

Market Update: 20 Dec 2015

Not going to beat around the bush this time round. We are coming to the end of year 2015 and so what will be the trend for US market and Crude oil before the beginning of year 2016.
Lets go straight to the charts

S&P 500 weekly chart

DJI weekly chart

Base on both DJI and S&P chart showing that the market try to retest the high after FED announced rate hike but failed after friday closing. IMO, I believe more downside for the coming week and will be quite bearish if both DJI and S&P successfully closed below August low.

WTI month chart

Most trader start to speculate whether is there a rebound coming soon for WTI - crude oil. IMO, I believe WTI will try to test the low in 2008 at $32.5 and might even break through since FED announced rate hike last week.  However I believe is good to slowly accumulate and watchlist certain companies when the price hit around $25-$30. Slowly invest bit by bit since it might take 1 or 2 qtr of 2016 before it recover. (OPEC have the final say whether to recover or not)

 Overall: In theory, rate hike will definitely impact the economy in certain way and I believe will be a negative impact. However, the impact will not be immediate. To make it simple, during GFC, Fed reduce the rate to save the economy and how can it be that increase interest rate will improve the economy? (A real debatable question). 

Market Update: 18 Oct 2015

Its been 3 week after my last update. We have experienced the bull run over last 3 week whereby my DJI position also got stopped out. However it might be too late to turn contrarian as for now. I will continue to monitor further with no position on hand in the US market. For the upcoming week, I will share my view on STI and two individual counters. I may enter if the candle showing any entry signal.
So lets begin with the charts.

 DJI: I got stopped out from my short position at 17k where by the candle closed above the short signal on 17 Sep. I will stay out right now to monitor further before any action.

STI: Its been uptrend for the past 2 week till it come to the first resistance level 3050. The first resistance fall nicely into the Support turn resistant line plus 38.2% fibo. As for now, STI fall into the conjunction of both bull and bear decision. If 3050 successfully take over, it may continue to trend upward to the next fibo at 3150. (I will remain sideway till a clearer picture)

 DailyFarm: There is a channel position form in the weekly chart. Nicely fall within the channel.
Long: $6.3
SL: $5.9
Final TP: $8.1
 RRR: 4.5

Ho Bee: Weekly showing uptrend remain intact. Eyeing for opportunity to long this counter.
Long: $1.97
SL: $1.91
TP: $2.07
RRR: 1.667

Overall: Market still in between the bull and bear season since after US market index break below 200MA.
Watch out for the earning reports in US market and continue to monitor any sign of rate hike during the FOMC. Investors believe the Fed may push back the rate hike till year 2016. However as a trader, we continue to stay nimble and be strict in our stop lost to protect ourselves against any unforeseen news.

You are remind to trade base on your own risk. Plan and Trade well :)

Market Update: 27 Sep 2015

It’s been 10month since my last post. Finally I have graduated from my degree in finance. However the passion to enhance my financial knowledge does not stop here. I have registered myself for the next Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) Level 1 examination in 2016. Although to be a TA trader does not require having CFA certificate, I still wish to expose myself in this enormous finance world.

To be a TA trader, strict discipline must always be the number 1 rule. You got to be true to yourself in your performance. I see the different in my P&L with and without posting my trading journal in my blog. To be frank, I am not doing well compare to last year. Either I’m lack of discipline or the weak market sentiment caused it.

By now, most investors/traders should know that we are facing a weak/bearish market sentiment in the world exchange. Trader face no issue as their time frame is rather short compare to investor. For investor out there, some investor eying to offload their portfolio to prevent further bleeding while the rest will like to catch the bottom fish. (Example blue chip or REITs to earn dividend)

Investors who use discount model factor to calculate the intrinsic value of a company should be wary of the US interest rate hike in year 2015 confirmed by yellen last week. The increase of the interest rate will definitely erode the profit of the company balance sheet. Long term investors might like to stay put in the equity market and go for other product.

In my opinion, base on the DJI chart below, I feel that there might be another bear wave approaching the US exchange. I am eying to short on the rebound in the coming week and long once it reach near 15k with an entry candle signal.

You are remind to trade base on your own risk. Plan and Trade well :)

Happy New Year 2015

Happy New Year 2015! 
This come late than never. I wish everyone a coming year is a fantabulous one that rewards all your future endeavors with success!

Have you write down your New Year's Resolutions for 2015?
I was out of town celebrating for the New Year count down. Didn't have a chance to post this on the day itself. Anyway I have made my New Year's resolutions under the beautiful fireworks. Hope you guys have spent a wonderful day with your loved one.

A brand New Year. I wish to start a bit different this time round. Year 2015 shall be a tough year in the financial market.

Why? 

21st century

• 2001 – Bursting of dot-com bubble – speculations concerning internet companies crashed
• 2007–08 – Global financial crisis 

 As most people know 2015 might be the beginning of a new financial year crisis base on past history records. Each financial crisis interval of 7-8yrs in between. So year 2015 nicely fall into the time frame of it.

What to do?

Always be prepare!
As for me, I will try to stay away from the market for the first 2wks and monitor how it flow. (Market is always there, most important is to preserve your capital) I will see a clear signal trend before stepping into the market once again.

What should you do?

For new traders/investors, my advise for you is to pick up some knowledge in the financial market before stepping into it. Be it FA/TA/PA, as long as you manage your risks well enough, you should be safe (at least wont get a big hole in your pocket).

Last but not least, I wish all the very best to the traders out there. HUAT AR!!

Market Update: 21 Dec 2014

Hi all. How is everyone December 2014 holiday so far? Definitely I didn't have a chance to go on holiday due to exam after exam. But I'm happy of what I'm currently doing.
Probability Technical Analysis will like to take this chance to wish everyone Happy Merry Christmas 2014 and hope everyone have received their Xmas Gift from the market. Thanks for supporting my blog which is almost more than a year and do continue to support me. I will definitely give my best view on the market as possible.

Alright, we shall next move into the trading floor once again. Oil have been plunging badly to $55/barrel. STI going up and down between 40 to 70 pts per day. Is Market is going volatile or due to Capricorn effect or year end rally? Stay away if you are not clear. Go enjoy your holiday & prepare for the year 2015 which many people not looking good in the economy.

I'm currently looking at this 2 position. HSI index and first resources. I have closed all other position which I recommend over my blog. SL triggered. :( [no worry]

Let see the following charts for the 2 counters.

Happy Merry Christmas..!! HUAT AR!!

HSI: Stated my call in my FB. As you can see from the weekly chart. It show the technical rebound after the candle touched the support line.
SL @ 22350
Target 23900

First Resources: I have stated the sell call in my FB too. Once after First Res break below $1.8, Just short. TP: $1.65/$1.5

Overall: Received number of msg asking whether do I conduct any courses. Yes I do, but only in 1-1 session

Currently I'm drafting my courses program outline to share with everyone of you. Do stay tune if you are interest.

You are remind to trade base on your own risk. Plan and Trade well :)

Market Update: 30 Nov 2014

Hi guys, been quite busy recently. (Due to exam). However still wish to be discipline to update my blog as regularly as possible. Last week biggest news shall be OPEC. Decide the future of the oil price! So I guess most of the investor/trader should know that crude oil drop below $70 while most of the oil counters plunge badly! So who are those who actually benefit while oil price drop below $70? Retailer? (Don't seem so because petrol price never drop eventually) However counters that related to oil such as "SIA" have been really bullish! Plus a little push on tigerair share price too. (Why? = Due to oil price cheap, expenses for SIA = low, Earning increase =UP, Stock go bullish).
So which counters shall be the next upcoming that will be benefit from the drop of oil price? Let see from the chart. I will be sharing with one of the counters.

 STI: Closed on 3350 as i predicted! As for now, No direction. Shall wait for the next move.

Jardine C&C: Will it hit my next target @ $43? For those who eying @ $44.55, beware as the last target is the hardest.

Haw Par: Seem good to go. Back on the bullish trend? 

Entry $8.61, 

TP: $8.78

SL: $8.55

NOL: So this shall be the next counter which benefit from the plunging of the oil price. 

As you can see YZJ having been bullish for quite some time, NOL started to pick up the steam of it. 

Do monitor closely for those who are keen to hop onto this ride. Plan wisely and you will be safe cruising with it )

Overall: My last few counter have manage to hit my TP (genting successfully hit $1.15, Breadtalk, Jardine C&C)

Now left venture & M1. Both counters still in play, As the chart look completely valid as till now! 

Those who are going anti trend O&G counters, becareful! 

You will never know when will OPEC host for the next meeting. 

Meantime, I believe oil will continue to fall perhaps hitting $65/$60/barrel.

Enjoy shorting O&G counters. People who are interested to short US Oil counters, take a look at COP and CJES.

You are remind to trade base on your own risk. Plan and Trade well :)

Market Update: 22 Nov 2014

Hi GUYS!! (HAPPY PROFITING LAST WEEK?)

What a great start for the first week after 1year of journey over here. Hitting 100% trading call! So happy but not to be over contented. Because trading is a journey. Always stay humble and have the mentality to learn more. Anyway I shall have a quick update over my last week recommendation including introduce 2counters which im monitoring currently. I have quite number of counters on hand but yet not ready to share.

STI: Only 3point away from my target last week. But anyway I believe my target will trigger for this coming week. Perhaps our next target will be @ 3380.

Jardine C&C: So did anyone of you follow my trading call last week where i mention to enter @ $40 if possible? Happy profiting for those who follow! Do a trailing stop if you believe it will hit the next target @ $43. As for me, Jardine may be dancing around the FIBO 50% & 61.8% range.

Genting SP: Anyone huat from Genting SP? Catching the reversal? Rob Genting SP if you kena rob by them in the casino! ^^. Those who are still inside this counter, maybe can try to aim for the next target @ $1.15

Breadtalk: The first counter which let me smile for the week!! First day hit my profit after recommending over the last sunday. Anyone Huat from this LOTI counter? ^^

 M1: Have been monitoring this counter closely last week. Didn't manage to catch pullback. However I believe the underlying strength in M1, looking for an opportunity to enter. Do your own trading plan! I stated my TP only in the chart :)

Venture: Double btm! (invalid if it break the second low)
Entry once it break $7.73 or within the ascending triangle.
TP: $7.8/$7.9/$7.97
SL:Do your own risk management.


Overall: There are number of people asking my strategies. How do I do my charting, TP, SL and entry point. However it is hard to explain, because sometime the longer you do your own charting, you create a invisble bond between you and the chart. Somehow you know how the way it move. There are number of counters currently in my watchlist. However the timing may not be right yet for me to share. If you do wish to monitor together, here is some of my list: Yanlord (up), Sino Grandness (up), UE E&C (up)

You are remind to trade base on your own risk. Plan and Trade well :)